Polling station officials proceed to the counting of the ballots at a voting station in Windhoek, Namibia, on December 1, 2024, during extended voting following the country's general election. Picture: Simon Maina / AFP
Sizo Nkala
The 2024 general elections in Namibia have been dubbed the most competitive in Namibia’s post-independence era.
The country’s dominant party system, in which the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) ruled the roost, looks set to end. The ruling party, SWAPO, in power since independence in 1990, experienced a significant dip in electoral support in the last general and local elections.
While the party may still emerge victorious, its majority in parliament could be reduced even further. In 2014 SWAPO won 77 of the 96 directly elected parliamentary seats while its presidential candidate, the late Hage Geingob won an overwhelming 86 percent of the vote. However, things changed in 2019.
The ruling party lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time since the advent of democracy in 1990 as it was reduced to 63 seats while Geingob’s support was also drastically reduced as he won 56 percent of the vote. SWAPO’s political dominance was further eroded in the 2020 regional and local authority elections where its vote share was reduced from 83 percent in 2015 to 57 percent. This saw the party’s seats in the National Council, the upper chamber of the parliament, reduced from 40 out of 42 to only 28.
It was even worse in the local elections with the party getting 40% of the vote – a steep decline from 73 percent in 2015. The results left it in full control of only 20 municipalities out of a total of 57 – this was down from 52 in 2015. The party lost in the capital, Windhoek, where its dominance was reduced from 12 to 5 out of 15 municipal seats. The capital city now has an opposition mayor, Job Amupanda, of Affirmative Repositioning (AR).
As such, the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections came in the context of a significant shift in the distribution of electoral support and may usher the country into a multiparty system in a more definitive manner. This shift in voting patterns is based on demographic changes as Namibia’s voting-age population is now dominated by young people with no connection to or memory of the anti-colonial liberation struggle that was waged by SWAPO.
The declining popularity of former liberation movements turned ruling parties in the Southern African region seems to be manifesting in Namibia. The main presidential election contenders will be Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of SWAPO, who has made history by becoming the party’s first female candidate and stands to make even bigger history if she wins the elections and becomes Namibia’s first female president. She faces heavy odds as she vies for the highest office in a country whose political culture is still male-dominated.
Her main challenger will be Panduleni Itula of the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) who has roots in SWAPO. He was expelled from SWAPO in 2019 after contesting presidential elections as an independent candidate garnering 30 percent of the vote. Itula’s IPC, formed in 2020, emerged as the second-biggest party in the regional and local elections of 2020 in terms of the overall vote. Other notable challengers include Job Amupanda of the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) and McHenry Venaani of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) which is currently the biggest opposition party in parliament with 16 seats.
If the opposition parties can get out the youth vote, they could reduce SWAPO’s number of seats in parliament and possibly force a second round presidential election should any of the candidates fail to secure an outright majority of 50% plus one as required by the constitution. Among the main issues in the polls are unemployment and corruption.
Namibia is struggling with an unemployment rate of 19 percent which is disproportionately affecting the youth. The Namibian economy has struggled since the slump in global commodity prices in 2015 which affected Namibia’s agricultural, fish, and mineral exports. The tourism industry, one of the biggest economic sectors, is yet to fully recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Corruption has also been a big issue.
The 'fishrot' scandal in which some SWAPO leaders are alleged to have accepted handsome bribes from an Iceland fishing company to facilitate its preferential access to Namibia’s rich fishing waters which was uncovered in 2019 is still talked about today and has tarnished the public image of the ruling party.
This move is believed to have jeopardised the livelihoods of thousands of Namibians who depend on fishing. Although some people were tried and convicted over the scandal, SWAPO’s public image was irreparably tarnished. Moreover, some SWAPO heavyweights have also been implicated in arms deal corruption involving foreign companies.
Namibia still struggles with inequality despite the abundance of natural resources like uranium, diamonds and oil among others which is a legacy of apartheid and colonialism. Black Namibians struggle to find economic opportunities and are forced to scrap a living in the informal economy. The country is also going through one of its worst droughts which has left hundreds of thousands of people in urgent need of food assistance. Its failure to address all these issues over the last three decades makes the case for SWAPO’s retention all the more difficult.
The ruling party’s presidential candidate, a struggle stalwart who has been in government since 1990, is a bona fide member of SWAPO’s old guard. Hence, the voters cannot trust her to be the change agent they need. Further, all eyes were on the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) which is responsible for running the elections.
However, early indications are that the ECN dropped the ball by failing to address logistical challenges which saw several polling stations run out of ballot papers. Voters had to stay in the queue until late at night. This could have possibly disenfranchised thousands of voters who may have left the queues in frustration. Voting was later extended to Friday, November 29 to cater for those who failed to vote as a result of the glitches in the system on November 27.
Whatever the outcome, these elections will usher Namibia into a new political era.
* Dr. Sizo Nkala is a Research Fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa-China Studies.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.